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Tuesday, November 21, 2006

2007 all set to be a tipping point for mobility

Next month’s PC Pro is a killer.

I’ve been a subscriber for quite a while now but never has the contents of this magazine filled my curiosity for future technologies like the January 2007 edition.

More than anything else, it’s pretty clear that with so many emerging technologies expected in the not-too-distant future, traditional mobile solutions are about to get a total overhaul.

With rumours rife that Dell is about to launch a Tablet PC, any observant reader would surely read between the lines of next month’s edition to see that this isn’t going to happen, or if it does, it’s probably a last-ditched effort to revive a dwindling niche.

Even Acer’s Jim Wong made it clear at the company’s recent 30th anniversary celebrations that the Tablet’s time is gone, going on to add that “the device we’re dreaming about… is single purpose and so simple to use.”

Although Windows Vista is toted by Microsoft themselves as a sure fire way to Improve Your Tablet PC Experience, it is surely going to face fierce competition from Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPC). This is where I see Acer making serious headway in 2007 onwards and where Dell is more likely to enter.

Why am I so sure? Because modern technology is an amalgam of disparate components, whether from different hardware manufacturers or between hardware and software vendors. Standalone technologies simply do not exist. The Tablet PC is a perfect example, as it would not have seen the light of day if Bill Gates himself hadn’t endorsed it.

With mobile technology, that complimentary technology is already in place. We’ve got ultramobile notebooks already on the shelves. These units feature multi-core processors and power efficient component that keep battery life up while offering true multi-tasking ability.

We’ve also got touch screens built into Tablets PCs, PDAs and in-car navigators, wired and wireless technologies and ultra-bright screens ready to deliver high definition content so there’s nothing startlingly new here.

What’s missing is affordable wireless broadband reception.

In September 2006 at the Acer Global Press Conference in Monte Carlo, Steve Brazier from Canalys piled into telephone network providers, blaming them exclusively for the slow uptake of mobile media.

Anyone who’s paid over £200 (€300) just to download emails at 56Kbps like I regularly do when I travel will agree.

But Barry Collins, news editor at PC Pro, took the argument further. In his News opinion column he actually puts the problem into numbers:

Even if you do track your mobile downloads to the last byte, keeping tabs on the bill is a headache. Take Vodafone for instance, Surfing web pages on its Vodafone Live service is gratis; stray beyond the portal's walls and you're looking at £2.35 (€3,47) per MB on its typical Anytime 150 price plan. Move to a pay-as-you-talk plan and Vodafone Live is charged at 0.1p (€0,15) per KB and 0.73p (€1) per KB off-portal. Not only has Vodafone changed the prices, it's changed the units of data measurement, just to make your brain ache and disguise the fact that those prices now equate to a staggering £1 (€1,48) per MB/£7.30 (€10,80) per MB respectively. To put this into perspective, the average fixed line broadband account offers 20GB of data downloads for around £20 (€29,56) a month. Vodafone's most expensive tariff would cost £146,000 (€215.753) a month for the same amount of data.


£146,000 a month? I know it’s hypothetical but how long is the (heavily) paying public going to let them get away with this?

So when 3G launches a flat-rate service with its X-Series, the others will surely have to follow, sending us over the tipping point that signals the end of mobility as we know it.

If connection prices plummet, there will then be no stopping to what PC vendors can and will be able to offer as the demand will simply be exponential.

And that’s where convergency takes another step forward. PDA’s will grow and notebooks will shrink and merge into UMPCs, with Bluetooth connectivity for VoIP headsets and built-in VVoIP cameras etc. These will be online the moment they are switched on, offering PC processing power with web-based telephone communication functionality.

Then there are the smart or hybrid phones which are just the opposite. Always-on communication/entertainment devices with miniaturised PC functionality and endless streaming media sources.

In any case, Wong’s right. The Tablet PC as we know it is dead. The UMPC will see to that.

And if Google’s vision for its Google Apps Enterprise Edition comes true – and frankly there’s no reason why it wouldn’t – maybe even Microsoft’s vice-like grip on the software industry is about to shift, with UMPCs accessing online applications and storage servers straight out the box.

Here’s to a fascinating 2007!

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